Oscar hasn’t gotten this serious in quite a while. If anyone doubts that the awards aren’t necessarily a popularity contest, they only need to look at the nominees for Best Picture this year. None of the five ever broke the $100 million mark (although “Brokeback Mountain” seems a likely candidate to do so), and none are what one might call mainstream.
Frankly, that is the way it should be. Leave People’s Choice to decide the merits of popularity; instead, Oscar celebrates a film’s artistry, both behind and in front of the camera. While I can nitpick at the ones that didn’t make the cut (“Walk the Line” didn’t get a Best Picture nod?), I can’t argue that the members of the Academy did find the best of an average movie going year.
(Note: The 78th annual Oscars are set for March 5.)
As is the tradition, it is time for the annual Pick the Oscars column by your friendly neighborhood critic. My choices for the first six are stated two ways: What I think will win, based on past awards, etc.; and what I think should win, if anyone really bothered to ask me. And with so many categories and so little space, I’ll offer just my quick pick for the likely winner in a handful of other categories.
BEST PICTURE
Will and Should Win: “Brokeback Mountain.”
Hollywood’s very gay-friendly attitude is in the favor of this film, but cynics shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this for just its sexuality aspects. Ang Lee’s unique love story isn’t simply about “gay cowboys,” but about societal censorship and fear. The most remarkable aspect is how it achieves its goal without overreaching dramatics, but simply allows the subtle pain of the leads to tell a story. No other movie last year had such a residual effect than this controversial story, which not only smashed stereotypes but also raised important questions about what it really means to be in love.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain”)
Should Win: Steven Spielberg (“Munich”)
Oscar rarely splits Best Picture and Director awards, and I doubt this year will be any different. And while I laud Lee’s handling of a difficult subject, it doesn’t compare to Spielberg’s re-creation of events following the killing of athletes at the Munich Olympic games. Part espionage thriller, and part social commentary, “Munich” moves us through the plots of men seeking retribution – without really understanding the consequences of their outcome. Spielberg already is one of cinema’s crown jewels, and he continues to sparkle here.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (‘Capote”)
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix (“Walk the Line”)
Playing real-life people is its own double-edge sword, because you walk a thin line between caricature and character. Both Hoffman’s Truman Capote and Phoenix’s Johnny Cash avoided the pitfall of making their portrayals seem like parody, but Phoenix did an even better achievement by capturing Cash’s voice in some of his best hits. I wouldn’t scoff at either win, and Hoffman seems to be an odds favorite after his Golden Globe win.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Matt Dillon (“Crash”)
Should Win: William Hurt (“A History of Violence”)
Dillon’s engaging performance, as part of the larger ensemble of “Crash,” is hard to deny. But Hurt engaged an entire movie with probably the smallest amount of screen time of all the nominees. His gangster in “Violence” only has brief scenes, but his powerfully subdued performance leaves an eerie residue of a man out for revenge. Don Corleone would be fearful of this guy.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”)
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”)
Again, I turn to my logic to the Best Actor nominees. Witherspoon’s re-creation of June Carter, who eventually became Johnny Cash’s wife, avoids the pitfalls of caricature and makes imitation the best form of flattery. She also has one nice voice. Still, I bow to the powers that be of Huffman’s awards for her portrayal of a transsexual. This isn’t a woman playing a man playing a woman, either. Huffman is, if anything, androgynous, and totally convincing.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Amy Adams (“Junebug”)
Should Win: Michelle Williams (“Brokeback Mountain”)
Probably the weakest category out of the bunch, I’ll give Adams the probably nod based on past wins. But Williams finely honed performance as the wife of one of the gay men in “‘Brokeback” required her, like the men themselves, to internalize her pain of knowing a hidden truth. Williams captures this with an almost controlled anger that never gets dramatically overwrought.
OTHER WILL-WIN PICKS:
ART DIRECTION: “Goodnight, and Good Luck”
ANIMATION: “Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Wee Rabbit”
CINEMATOGRAPHY: “Brokeback Mountain”
COSTUME DESIGN: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
EDITING: “Crash”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “Brokeback Mountain”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “Crash”
MAKE-UP: “The Chronicles of Narnia”
VISUAL EFFECTS: “King Kong”
